Over the next 50 years, the region is expected to gain as many as 4 million people and 2 million jobs. In a place where a crushing housing shortage is already threatening quality of life, how can we welcome new residents and jobs without paving over our green spaces or pushing out long-time community members? To keep pace, and make the region more affordable, the Bay Area will need almost 2.2 million housing units by 2070, according to research from SPUR, San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association.

As part of the Regional Strategy, ArchTam collaborated with SPUR to examine what it would take to house everyone who wants to live in the Bay Area. We’ve published our research in a new report, Model Places: Envisioning a Future Bay Area With Room and Opportunity for Everyone.

To determine where growth should go, we used land use data to assign every part of the nine-county Bay Area to one of “14 place types” based on urban patterns that occur throughout the region — from open spaces and residential suburbs to industrial areas and dense downtowns.

Cul de Sac Suburbs of Tomorrow – Neighbors – both longstanding and new arrivals continue to live close to nature, streets are transformed to make play-space for kids and a place to gather, exercise, and stroll. Last mile mobility solutions move through at a walking pace, between native plantings and permeable swales.

Model Places envisions what six of these different place types could look like if they grew in ways that made them not just more equitable and more sustainable, but more livable and humanizing places to live and work.

Our analysis shows that the Bay Area has plenty of room to grow, but only if every urbanized part of the region is willing to accept its share of the change. The responsibility can’t rest solely with the low- and moderate-income neighborhoods that have seen the most growth in recent years. Affluent places also need to do their part to accommodate new housing and new jobs.

The good news for everyone is that new growth can make existing neighborhoods better places for people, supporting diversity and inclusion, public health, sustainability and community life while retaining many of their essential qualities and lowering our carbon-footprint. And if we do it right, we can grow without sprawl — protecting and restoring the Bay Area’s unique natural environment.

Office Parks of Tomorrow – 20th Century single-use parking dominated offices parks are transformed into complete communities, with places for people to live and work in an highly amenitized environment. Automated shuttles offer internal circulation and regional transit connections.

This vision represents a bold new direction for the Bay Area, so we invited five artists to help us bring it to life, lending their different sensibilities to imagine a region where every place does its part and everyone can thrive. You can see their work in the report.

A Call to Action
To realize this vision, the Bay Area must commit to collectively tackling the challenges of housing, transportation, equity and climate change. Getting there will require profound changes in policies, practices, laws and culture — recommendations SPUR will make in upcoming Regional Strategy reports. Real transformation will require a series of changes at different levels of government over many decades. It’s never easy for communities to commit to massive change, especially when they can’t see ahead to the outcome. We hope Model Places gives a glimpse of what’s possible — and inspires a commitment to what’s needed.

Read the Model Places report.

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Our generation must come to grips with the fact that the California dream is threatened by a historic affordability crisis. Aging and inadequate infrastructure cannot support the current population, and economic development is insufficient to accommodate projected growth or address our growing environmental challenges. All these issues are occurring during a long overdue social revolution and a historic global pandemic. Yet, there is reason for hope.

California’s economy is the envy of many, in part because we have one of the most diverse and culturally rich populations in the world. Despite the lack of national leadership on climate and infrastructure, and inner-California in-fighting on housing issues, much of our state and municipal leadership is at the center of international and national environmental and equity discussions. In our short-term response to the coronavirus pandemic, Californians have worked across the political, economic and social spectrum to keep California relatively safe. We need to channel this collaborative spirit to assess the next stages of recovery and challenge ourselves to look forward to a better normal, where the California dream is available to everyone for generations to come.

The Next Generation of Transportation

California’s identity must change from the iconic image as the birthplace of crowded highways to a reimagined icon of mobility — one aligned with our state’s 2017 Executive Order to be carbon neutral by 2045[ii] and one of cities and communities of pedestrians and cyclists making local trips, while efficient, safe and carbon-free mass transit connects us across regions and the state. We must replace the iconic and prevalent gas stations of the 20^th century with a statewide charging and electric transportation network that is not only accessible, but also a right of all Californians. The 2017 Executive Order set a goal that by 2030, we must have 5 million[iii] zero emissions vehicles, but of the approximately 15 million registered vehicles in California today, only 100,000 are zero emissions vehicles.[iv]

Transit-oriented Housing

For generations, California living has been typified by bungalows and single-family houses in suburban neighborhoods defining the symbolic sunny California lifestyle replete with citrus trees in everyone’s backyards. This vision was not open to all and its sprawling reality is not sustainable. We need a new vision of communities with townhouses and apartments surrounding neighborhood parks, which are affordable to our workforce and are supported by transit — creating places where people can live, work and play within a 20-minute walk or transit ride. This would dramatically enhance the efficiency of our land-use. California has a housing shortfall of 3.5 million units and 41.6% of its residents are rent-burdened.[v]

Creating Quality Jobs

For several generations, we have been proud to see the “Designed in California” labels while ignoring the true environmental and social cost of offshoring manufacturing. Today’s advanced manufacturing can bring back jobs without polluting our air and water tables if we invest in and advocate for an advanced manufacturing renaissance and sustainable agricultural industry here in California. We must invest in all Californians through education and job training and provide a pathway to quality jobs to eliminate working poverty. This will require significant investment in not only workforce training, but also modern energy, water and transport infrastructure[vi] to underpin the growth in California.

Mitigating Climate Change

California’s valleys, mountains and shorelines are threatened by climate change in the form of flooding and wildfires. Adaptation has been studied and strategies developed, but many are waiting to be implemented due to a lack of funding, fragmented governance and permitting challenges[vii]. It was estimated that in 2019, there was $25 billion of damage caused by fire alone[viii]. Real estate worth $100 billion, countless habitats and 25 million residents are still vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding[ix].

We need the social, economic and political resolve to invest in implementing these strategies and as quickly as possible. We need to pivot from investing in recovery to investing in adaptation and resilience that allows Californians to thrive together. Only then can we be closer to turning the myth of a resilient California dream into a reality that is available to all the world’s most ambitious, adventurous and innovative.

[i] https://www.kcet.org/shows/departures/california-calafia-khalif-the-origin-of-the-name-california

[ii]https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-california-achieve-a-ldquo-carbon-neutral-rdquo-economy/

[iii] https://www.insideenergyandenvironment.com/2018/09/governor-jerry-brown-signs-sb-100-and-executive-order-to-achieve-carbon-neutrality-by-2045/

[iv] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_California

[v] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-california-housing-crisis/

[vi] https://www.labor.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CA-FOW-Working-Draft-frame-and-architecture-for-recommendations-Mar-12.pdf

[vii] https://cal-adapt.org/blog/posts/maps-projected-change-01142020/

[viii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-28/california-fire-damages-already-at-25-4-billion-and-counting

[ix] https://sealevelrise.org/states/california/

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Right now a range of forces, from new technologies, to environmental change, to demographic shifts, are changing the urban infrastructure equation. Private-sector innovators are offering new options for how we move around the city and to where we need to transport ourselves—new places and types of places to live, work, and play. In the context of climate change and diminishing natural resources, our approach to water and energy generation and distribution and the need to prepare for erratic weather and rising sea levels are also changing. As the global population grows and shifts into cities, increased social inequality worldwide and within any given city further drives a mandate for change.

We are still planning, funding, and governing for the traditional urban infrastructure equation, but technology, the environment, and society are changing very rapidly and thus demanding more infrastructure developed faster while offering a better quality and greater inclusiveness. Looked at with the existing set of tools, this may seem insurmountable: how can we possibly fund and deliver all of the infrastructure that the new global urban population will need in time? What about a different question: how can we change our infrastructure delivery approach to align with the new equation, and what opportunities could this unlock? Who are the new partners that need to be at the table?

As a company that designs, builds, finances, and operates infrastructure worldwide, and a company thinking deeply about what infrastructure is and needs to become in this rapidly changing world, ArchTam is engaged in a series of activities exploring this question.

This graphic was developed as part of a study by ArchTam of Brooklyn’s waterfront.

ArchTam CEO Michael S. Burke chaired a panel at the Milken Institute on May 3 that brought together Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Uber Chief Strategist David Plouffe, We Work/We Live CEO Artie Minson, Hyperloop founder Brogan Bambrogan, and the Milken Institute’s Executive Chairman of Plenary Concessions Dale Bonner. The panel represents not just a one-time conversation but an ongoing dialogue between public-sector agencies who deliver and govern urban infrastructure and private-sector agents whose ‘disruptive’ technologies are redefining living patterns and economies. The panel began to explore how the public and private sectors can partner to develop holistic urban infrastructure solutions that embrace mobility, water, energy, housing, logistics, work, and greater equity.

Meanwhile, ArchTam and Van Alen Institute in partnership with 100 Resilient Cities—Pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation have launched the seventh Urban SOS competition in 2016, titled Urban SOS: Fair Share. The competition calls on multidisciplinary student teams to apply the tools and technologies of the sharing economy to support more equitable access to resources, improve the built environment and enrich the quality of life of urban residents. As we’re defining them, sharing economy models have two basic things in common: they use digital technology to connect people who have a shared need, and they provide access to resources that aren’t being used. Urban SOS asks students to apply these models to parks, schools, public housing, roads, and any other type of urban infrastructure.

These activities represent the beginnings of dialogues and idea generation. As we work with public and private-sector clients to deliver urban infrastructure around the world, we are ready to put the most promising new ideas into practice in search of new delivery models that align with the new equation.

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Brilliant exudes character and confidence. Brilliant works across boundaries in support of a greater vision. Brilliant finds the common ground between private and public to close funding gaps. Brilliant performs technically while achieving broader social and economic benefits. Brilliant overcomes obstacles to get essential projects delivered.

Cities can explore eight steps to capitalize on their strengths, address their weaknesses, and achieve brilliance:

Start at the end

Secure a legacy with strategic planning

What will your city be like in 50 years? Understanding where your city is headed—and how you want to shape its future—should guide how projects and infrastructure are prioritized today. Smart long-term planning anticipates social, economic and environmental changes and builds the strategic direction to secure a positive legacy, for cities and leaders.

Draw a crowd

Energize the center through compact urban design

People come to cities to be near other people. Cities need places where people can come together, places that resonate, inspire and excite; a waterfront promenade or central park, a distinctive district or event center, a signature tower or downtown area. A well-planned project can turn the tide and change a city’s fortune. Cities that work to boost business and celebrate life are positioned to compete and succeed.

Renovations at LAX will help Angelinos and world travelers ‘get there together.’

Get there together

Upgrade transportation to move people and business faster

A city’s economy moves at the pace of its transportation network. Efficient transportation speeds the flow of people, ideas and commerce. Airports and seaports are global gateways. Roads and rail establish regional connections. Bike and walking routes make mobility healthy, inexpensive, and fun. In a great city, access is built into the fabric.

Change the flow

Get more from innovative energy and water infrastructure

We depend upon civil infrastructure to meet our daily needs, but the investments we make for these essential functions can yield wider value when we take new approaches. Stormwater managed naturally can improve the urban landscape, increase property values and protect our waterways. Recycled wastewater can green our parks and neighborhoods. Solid waste treated organically can reduce landfill and produce energy for homes.

The restoration of Echo Park Lake is helping LA ‘change the flow.’

Make green pay

Take environmental action that provides an economic boost Investments in the environment can yield financial and social dividends. As cities take measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change, remediate contamination, and protect and restore natural environments, they are finding a wealth of benefits, from energy savings and cleaner air to rising real estate values and healthier people. It creates a better climate for business and community.

Ignore borders

Collaborate across agencies and boundaries for bigger results

Challenges do not follow the boundaries of departments and municipalities. Neither should solutions. To compete at a global level, cities need to advance in step with their supporting regions. This means collaborating across disciplines and jurisdictions, and cooperating and planning at the regional level, to see the bigger picture, connect better ideas and find smarter solutions.

Act now

Identify and address physical and cyber vulnerability

Buildings and bridges are joining the internet of things. This increases the need for cyber security, along with security against physical attacks, violent weather, earthquakes, and decay over time. Proactive solutions begin with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Anticipating the most likely points of attack or failure lets a city know where to invest to prevent or mitigate disaster before it strikes.

A public-private partnership for the Gov. George Deukmejian Courthouse helped Long Beach ‘finish ahead.’

Finish ahead

Get projects funded, built and operating sooner

Public budgets are stretched. Roads, bridges, water systems, hospitals, schools and courthouses need maintenance or new structures, but there are new ways around old obstacles. Partnering the public and private sectors and linking the phases of a project’s life cycle can speed construction, reduce cost, increase performance and manage risk. It’s time to take advantage of the alternatives.

Stephen Engblom (Stephen.engblom@archtam.com) is an urban planner and designer, and global director of ArchTam Cities.

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What makes a city “smart?” What makes it “fast” (in terms of economic growth)? What are the comparative benefits of each? How can a smart city get fast and a fast city get smart?

Reading this article from Fast Company about the 10 “smartest” cities in North America reminded me of this article in Forbes from a few months ago about the fastest growing cities in the U.S. I couldn’t help thinking of the children’s fable about the tortoise and the hare.

Forbes’ list of the fastest was driven by financial indicators alone, not taking into consideration some of the social and infrastructure lenses that Fast Company’s smartest list calibrates.

The most striking observation is that the three fastest-growing cities on Forbes’ list are all in Texas while the “smartest” lists don’t recognize any of these cities. Perhaps that is because the “smartest” list includes Canada. And what about Utah and Arizona? What makes fast-growing Provo and Salt Lake less “smart”? While we cannot predict booms and busts it made we wonder if part of the reason to be smart verses fast is so that a city’s growth is smooth and sustained.

The two cities that are common to both lists are Seattle and Portland—both cities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest with a high focus on sustainability and driven by a significant tech sector economy. Portland is famous for being the first city in the United States to eschew federal transportation dollars for urban highway improvements. As a result they now have one of the most transit-rich urban cores in the world. Portland has also seen an uptick in manufacturing (Streetcars and Bicycles) as well as white collar jobs associated with the Portland sustainability brand.

Houston, a city I called home for six years, is famous for its sprawl. Since recruiting a sustainability director, Laura Spanjian, from San Francisco, there have been advances in major policy initiatives. Yet the lack of comprehensive planning (the city still operates with “super neighborhood area planning” or SNAP) results in a disjointed development pattern in which the large development areas are not aligned with connective transportation infrastructure. The resultant traffic and decaying urban fabric separating the improved SNAP neighborhoods would suggest that it will be wise to focus on growing smarter.

San Francisco is one of the top 10 “smart” cities yet it sits at number 14 on the “fast” list. Efforts at fast tracking pro-business tax policies have catalyzed a rapid influx of technology to downtown San Francisco, which should speed the city’s rise on the fast list. Meanwhile its challenges with affordability could challenge its standing as the #2 “smartest” city.

“Top Ten” lists are always fun to read, but comparing different methods of ranking makes for thought-provoking analysis. Like the slow and steady tortoise, the long-term-looking city may see the more sustainable growth. Yet the tortoises will need to get more agile in the short term to stay competitive.

Stephen Engblom (stephen.engblom@archtam.com) leads ArchTam’s Design, Planning + Economics practice in the Americas.

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